Compiling all fastest-laps from the 1991 F1 season up until the current 2020 ("mid") season (data reported as of 10/5/20 - post Russian GP), we see a clear indication that of recent times, the fastest laps seem to be coinciding more and more towards the end of the race. Interesting to see some 90's races having their fastest-laps being set within 10%-20% of the race and then that not being beaten even by the end of the race. Also a trend of faster single lap times have started to form towards the current day seasons -- shifting of the plots towards the x-axis.
In the figure below, we have a plot that has a collection of all single race fastest laps from 1991 plotted against the race stage when this was recorded. I've gone through each race qualifications for all seasons in this range and recorded their individual fastest recorded lap time. A sweeping color gradient has been used to better identify the eras represented in this graphic. While circuits have changed though history (even certain specific circuits have had upgrades/modifications made to them within the last 20years), we are clear to note the undoubtable advancements in current F1 car speeds and technology.. especially cornering speeds capable currently. While this does not reflect directly in this representation, an idea of evolution of F1 racing itself can be identified within the data presented here.
Filtering out the data in the collection above, we can take a look at more recent seasons (2016-2020) clearly and understand how they stack up to some of the previous seasons. As expected and well noticed during GP weekends, the fastest laps have almost always have been recorded after around 85% of the race completion. However, we also notice some lap times that almost seem out of place lodged at around 40%-60% race completion. A couple of these highlights have been labeled, as seen below, to point towards the increasing speed trends and to also compare how unique they have been in comparison to the general trend.
Histograms and Distribution
Now transferring all the data presented before into a histogram, it becomes clearer the general trend moving towards a faster lap being placed towards the end of a race. These unadjusted raw lap times have various factors that support this trend - amongst which reducing fuel weights plays a major part. Varying other factors still remain such as contributions from race track evolution, tires development/degradation, pit stops, and aggressive finishes towards the end.. all contribute to this distribution.
Breaking down the distribution into manageable (5yr) seasons/groupings, we see the trend gradually shift more and more towards the end of the race. This indicates a more competitive stance by drivers to outdo laps previously set towards the closing stages of the race. While these fastest laps don't necessarily have to be set by the winning team/driver, the possibility of chipping at a single extra point at relatively low risk gives incentives to the best-of-the-rest to gain. It also aids in preventing leaders from attaining more championship points which could be snatched by a losing opponent or closest contender. The added incentive is probably going to make for more exciting finishes and more chances for other internal races. The +1 extra point counting towards the championship tally, implemented starting in the 2019 F1 Season, required the driver to be placed within the top 10 race finishers to gain it. This move give more incentive to the sport and add an element of excitement towards tight finished especially if the championship race is expected to be very close. While the 2008 season did not have this point system, the end of season Championship standings gave Lewis Hamilton the edge by only +1 point in comparison to his biggest competition Filipe Massa. Similarly closely fielded seasons include 2016 (+5pts), 2012 (+3pts), 2010(+4pts) and 2007 (+1pts over both 2nd and 3rd places drivers).
Moving further outwards and looking at decade long intervals for the last 30 years, a vast change is seen in the most recent 10 year period (see below). Note previous interval distribution from 1991-2010 show a high number of early-race fastest laps and has a consistent distribution. The distribution is such that the probability of the fastest lab being within say approximately 20-100% of the race was fairly equal. Contrary to the previous years, to the probability increasing massively towards around 90-100% in the current decade.
Contribution due to weight? Pit stops?
The influence of the refueling used in pit stops prior to 2010 had a significant impact on race strategy. Here we have a clear comparison between 2009 and 2010 where the rule changes regarding fueling was implemented - as such refueling during pitstops have been banned since 2010. The current regulations as it stands from 2019 season, allows for 110kg fuel per race. Looking at data below, just a single data point for 2010 season below 73% completion compared to 8 such occurrences in 2009.
No refueling --> empty fuel tank towards end of race --> much lighter car --> faster laps
Nice little comparison for Ferrari 2002 (Schumacher) vs 2020 (Vettel) both in Barcelona (with track modifications between he two years). A comparison of the progression in driving style, technological improvements and circuit evolution. Video sourced from The Performance Review Channel, YouTube
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